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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

25.91%

increased by 0.80%

1 Week

25.75%

increased by 0.64%

1 Month

25.16%

increased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:58 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.6620
7.43***
αARCH0.0691
7.19***
βGARCH0.9112
81.00***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.0165
-2.09**
γ20.0091
0.76
γ30.0255
2.68***
γ4-0.0442
-2.63***

0.980

Persistence

35d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6620
7.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0691
7.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9112
81.00***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.0165
-2.09**
γ20.0091
0.76
γ30.0255
2.68***
γ4-0.0442
-2.63***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

35 days