V-Lab
S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
25.91%
increased by 0.80%
1 Week
25.75%
increased by 0.64%
1 Month
25.16%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:58 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6620 | 7.43*** |
| αARCH | 0.0691 | 7.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9112 | 81.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0165 | -2.09** |
| γ2 | 0.0091 | 0.76 |
| γ3 | 0.0255 | 2.68*** |
| γ4 | -0.0442 | -2.63*** |
0.980
Persistence35d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6620 | 7.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0691 | 7.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9112 | 81.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0165 | -2.09** |
| γ2 | 0.0091 | 0.76 |
| γ3 | 0.0255 | 2.68*** |
| γ4 | -0.0442 | -2.63*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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