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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

25.33%

decreased by 0.86%

1 Week

25.43%

decreased by 0.76%

1 Month

25.78%

decreased by 0.41%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 67 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 67 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 67-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0359
5.16***
αARCH0.0551
4.26***
βGARCH0.9223
105.96***
γleverage0.0247
1.12

0.990

Persistence

67d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0359
5.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0551
4.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9223
105.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0247
1.12

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days