V-Lab
S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
25.33%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
25.43%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Month
25.78%
decreased by 0.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 67 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 67 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 67-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0359 | 5.16*** |
| αARCH | 0.0551 | 4.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9223 | 105.96*** |
| γleverage | 0.0247 | 1.12 |
0.990
Persistence67d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0359 | 5.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0551 | 4.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9223 | 105.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0247 | 1.12 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
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