V-Lab
Sivers Semiconductors Ab MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
99.60%
decreased by 1.76%
1 Week
103.27%
increased by 1.91%
1 Month
113.10%
increased by 11.74%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:46 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 17, 2014 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 81 | |
| αARCH | 0.1007 | 3.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8478 | 16.71*** |
| γleverage | -0.0351 | -0.79 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.2429 | 1.06 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0414 | 0.93 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9514 | 20.42*** |
0.931
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1007 | 3.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8478 | 16.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0351 | -0.79 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2429 | 1.06 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0414 | 0.93 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9514 | 20.42*** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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