V-Lab
Sivers Semiconductors Ab GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
82.84%
decreased by 4.35%
1 Week
82.36%
decreased by 4.83%
1 Month
80.73%
decreased by 6.46%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:45 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 17, 2014 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.38 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-lifev = 3.38 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 21.4829 | 0.96 |
| αARCH | 0.1014 | 6.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9716 | 31.84*** |
| νDF | 3.3760 | 3.40*** |
0.972
Persistence24d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 21.4829 | 0.96 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1014 | 6.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9716 | 31.84*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3760 | 3.40*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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