V-Lab
Sivers Semiconductors Ab GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
141.31%
decreased by 2.78%
1 Week
138.58%
decreased by 5.51%
1 Month
129.02%
decreased by 15.07%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 17, 2014 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.36 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 25-day half-lifev = 3.36 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 22.0030 | 0.95 |
| αARCH | 0.1014 | 6.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9728 | 32.95*** |
| νDF | 3.3617 | 3.52*** |
0.973
Persistence25d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 22.0030 | 0.95 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1014 | 6.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9728 | 32.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3617 | 3.52*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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