Sivers Semiconductors Ab APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
179.82%
decreased by 1.95%
1 Week
177.07%
decreased by 4.70%
1 Month
167.62%
decreased by 14.15%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 17, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days. The volatility power δ = 0.96 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1454 | 8.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1061 | 15.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8939 | 143.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1219 | -1.91* |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9620 | 9.62*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
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