V-Lab
Sivers Semiconductors Ab Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
130.96%
decreased by 3.75%
1 Week
130.35%
decreased by 4.36%
1 Month
128.86%
decreased by 5.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 17, 2014 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4424 | 3.58*** |
| αARCH | 0.0776 | 3.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8441 | 22.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.4121 | -1.23 |
| γ2 | 0.3373 | 0.71 |
| γ3 | 0.4215 | 1.84* |
| γ4 | -0.6442 | -3.97*** |
| γ5 | 0.5129 | 3.41*** |
| γ6 | -0.3418 | -2.87*** |
0.922
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4424 | 3.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0776 | 3.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8441 | 22.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.4121 | -1.23 |
| γ2 | 0.3373 | 0.71 |
| γ3 | 0.4215 | 1.84* |
| γ4 | -0.6442 | -3.97*** |
| γ5 | 0.5129 | 3.41*** |
| γ6 | -0.3418 | -2.87*** |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
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