V-Lab
Sivers Semiconductors Ab Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
100.49%
decreased by 1.47%
1 Week
104.24%
increased by 2.28%
1 Month
112.89%
increased by 10.93%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:45 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 17, 2014 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4395 | 3.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.0770 | 3.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8433 | 22.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.4174 | -1.27 |
| γ2 | 0.3528 | 0.76 |
| γ3 | 0.4008 | 1.76* |
| γ4 | -0.6267 | -3.85*** |
| γ5 | 0.4989 | 3.36*** |
| γ6 | -0.3302 | -2.92*** |
0.920
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4395 | 3.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0770 | 3.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8433 | 22.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.4174 | -1.27 |
| γ2 | 0.3528 | 0.76 |
| γ3 | 0.4008 | 1.76* |
| γ4 | -0.6267 | -3.85*** |
| γ5 | 0.4989 | 3.36*** |
| γ6 | -0.3302 | -2.92*** |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
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