Sivers Semiconductors Ab Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
274.77%
decreased by 2.00%
1 Week
283.59%
increased by 6.82%
1 Month
300.60%
increased by 23.83%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 17, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5009 | 4.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0725 | 3.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8130 | 15.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0660 | 0.12 |
| γ2 | -0.6134 | -0.60 |
| γ3 | 0.5913 | 0.57 |
| γ4 | 0.0857 | 0.10 |
| γ5 | 0.2447 | 0.42 |
| γ6 | -0.4795 | -0.74 |
| γ7 | -0.5198 | -0.61 |
| γ8 | 1.5755 | 1.78* |
| γ9 | -1.9847 | -1.95* |
| γ10 | 3.3654 | 3.39*** |
Persistence:
0.886
Half-life:
6 days
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