V-Lab
Trident Resources Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
82.47%
decreased by 1.02%
1 Week
92.73%
increased by 9.24%
1 Month
110.83%
increased by 27.34%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6025 | 5.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1866 | 7.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7019 | 17.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1109 | -0.73 |
| γ2 | 0.0969 | 0.39 |
| γ3 | -0.0937 | -0.49 |
| γ4 | 0.4110 | 2.49** |
| γ5 | -0.4475 | -2.56** |
| γ6 | 0.1585 | 0.96 |
Persistence:
0.888
Half-life:
6 days
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