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V-Lab

Trident Resources Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

79.05%

decreased by 2.50%

1 Week

83.84%

increased by 2.29%

1 Month

100.41%

increased by 18.86%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:27 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Trident Resources Corp GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026
Illiquid Asset
Extended Optimization

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 217 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

512.2001
7.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1079
91.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9968
2,362.13***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.8666
151.59***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

217 days