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V-Lab

Trident Resources Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

118.45%

decreased by 11.29%

1 Week

121.45%

decreased by 8.29%

1 Month

132.54%

increased by 2.80%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:49 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Trident Resources Corp GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026
Illiquid Asset

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 220 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

510.4532
7.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1070
90.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9969
2,402.05***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.8773
149.65***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

220 days