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V-Lab

Trident Resources Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

104.09%

decreased by 5.66%

1 Week

113.59%

increased by 3.84%

1 Month

131.04%

increased by 21.29%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Trident Resources Corp SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5975
4.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1865
7.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7033
17.49***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.1175
-0.77
γ20.1105
0.44
γ3-0.1125
-0.58
γ40.4431
2.62***
γ5-0.5096
-2.75***
γ60.3196
1.35

Persistence:

0.890

Half-life:

6 days