Trident Resources Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
104.09%
decreased by 5.66%
1 Week
113.59%
increased by 3.84%
1 Month
131.04%
increased by 21.29%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5975 | 4.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1865 | 7.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7033 | 17.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1175 | -0.77 |
| γ2 | 0.1105 | 0.44 |
| γ3 | -0.1125 | -0.58 |
| γ4 | 0.4431 | 2.62*** |
| γ5 | -0.5096 | -2.75*** |
| γ6 | 0.3196 | 1.35 |
Persistence:
0.890
Half-life:
6 days
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