Trident Resources Corp AGARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
104.39%
1 Week
113.06%
1 Month
145.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:49 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.013 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9126 | 14.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2408 | 33.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7725 | 175.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.9232 | 2.52** |
Persistence:
1.013
Half-life:
-
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