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Invesco QQQ LOW Vltility ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

14.78%

increased by 0.50%

1 Week

14.55%

increased by 0.27%

1 Month

13.88%

decreased by 0.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Invesco QQQ LOW Vltility ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 4, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.07 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-lifev = 7.07 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.6135
0.81
αscore0.0502
1.27
βpersistence0.9434
13.66***
νDF7.0734
0.11

0.943

Persistence

12d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.6135
0.81
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0502
1.27
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9434
13.66***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.0734
0.11

Persistence:

0.943

Half-life:

12 days