Invesco QQQ LOW Vltility ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
14.78%
increased by 0.50%
1 Week
14.55%
increased by 0.27%
1 Month
13.88%
decreased by 0.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.07 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-lifev = 7.07 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.6135 | 0.81 |
| αscore | 0.0502 | 1.27 |
| βpersistence | 0.9434 | 13.66*** |
| νDF | 7.0734 | 0.11 |
0.943
Persistence12d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.6135 | 0.81 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0502 | 1.27 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9434 | 13.66*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.0734 | 0.11 |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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