Invesco QQQ LOW Vltility ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
14.60%
increased by 0.43%
1 Week
14.65%
increased by 0.48%
1 Month
14.60%
increased by 0.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 96 | |
| αARCH | 0.0232 | 2.34** |
| βGARCH | 0.9100 | 29.23*** |
| γleverage | 0.0163 | 0.99 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0576 | 2.54** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8965 | 6.93*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.1035 | 2.67*** |
0.941
Persistence11d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 96 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0232 | 2.34** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9100 | 29.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0163 | 0.99 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0576 | 2.54** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8965 | 6.93*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1035 | 2.67*** |
Persistence:
0.941
Half-life:
11 days
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