Invesco QQQ LOW Vltility ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
15.55%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
15.15%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
14.59%
decreased by 0.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8694 | 4.63*** |
| αARCH | 0.0477 | 0.74 |
| βGARCH | 0.7541 | 4.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -4.8412 | -1.67* |
| γ2 | 8.3750 | 1.97** |
| γ3 | -4.8723 | -2.55** |
0.802
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8694 | 4.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0477 | 0.74 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7541 | 4.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -4.8412 | -1.67* |
| γ2 | 8.3750 | 1.97** |
| γ3 | -4.8723 | -2.55** |
Persistence:
0.802
Half-life:
3 days
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