V-Lab
Invesco QQQ LOW Vltility ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
15.02%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
15.36%
increased by 0.19%
1 Month
15.69%
increased by 0.52%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7661 | 3.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0428 | 0.70 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6981 | 2.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -7.6261 | -1.72* |
| γ2 | 11.8710 | 1.77* |
| γ3 | -3.7829 | -0.79 |
Persistence:
0.741
Half-life:
2 days
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