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V-Lab

PSI 20 Portuguese Stock Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

14.58%

increased by 0.63%

1 Week

14.45%

increased by 0.50%

1 Month

14.30%

increased by 0.35%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 05:07 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of PSI 20 Portuguese Stock Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1992 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 341% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 341% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0568
4.31***
βGARCH0.6870
27.74***
γleverage0.1939
7.79***
λ₁tau intercept0.0071
2.66***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0525
4.79***
λ₃tau persistence0.9421
77.97***

0.841

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0568
4.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6870
27.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1939
7.79***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0071
2.66***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0525
4.79***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9421
77.97***

Persistence:

0.841

Half-life:

4 days