V-Lab
PSI 20 Portuguese Stock Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
12.08%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
12.92%
increased by 0.47%
1 Month
14.21%
increased by 1.76%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 12:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1992 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 343% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0570 | 17.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6860 | 78.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1954 | 28.93*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0071 | 3.52*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0525 | 7.77*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9423 | 131.23*** |
Persistence:
0.841
Half-life:
4 days
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