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V-Lab

PSI 20 Portuguese Stock Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

11.21%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Week

11.98%

increased by 0.54%

1 Month

13.11%

increased by 1.67%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 05:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of PSI 20 Portuguese Stock Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1992 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 343% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0569
17.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6859
78.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1954
28.94***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0071
3.52***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0526
7.76***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9421
130.55***

Persistence:

0.840

Half-life:

4 days