PSI 20 Portuguese Stock Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
14.58%
increased by 0.63%
1 Week
14.45%
increased by 0.50%
1 Month
14.30%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 05:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1992 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 341% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 341% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0568 | 4.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6870 | 27.74*** |
| γleverage | 0.1939 | 7.79*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0071 | 2.66*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0525 | 4.79*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9421 | 77.97*** |
0.841
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0568 | 4.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6870 | 27.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1939 | 7.79*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0071 | 2.66*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0525 | 4.79*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9421 | 77.97*** |
Persistence:
0.841
Half-life:
4 days
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