V-Lab
PSI 20 Portuguese Stock Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
10.75%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
11.41%
increased by 0.23%
1 Month
12.48%
increased by 1.30%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 05:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1992 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 343% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0570 | 17.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6858 | 78.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1954 | 28.93*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0071 | 3.52*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0529 | 7.75*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9418 | 129.71*** |
Persistence:
0.840
Half-life:
4 days
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