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PSI 20 Portuguese Stock Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

14.95%

increased by 1.84%

1 Week

15.06%

increased by 1.95%

1 Month

15.45%

increased by 2.34%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of PSI 20 Portuguese Stock Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1992 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 122 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~122 daysv = 6.74 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.9859
1.37
αscore0.0959
14.75***
βpersistence0.9943
244.19***
νDF6.7381
3.12***

0.994

Persistence

122d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.9859
1.37
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0959
14.75***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9943
244.19***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.7381
3.12***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

122 days