PSI 20 Portuguese Stock Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
14.95%
1 Week
15.06%
1 Month
15.45%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1992 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 122 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.9859 | 1.37 |
| αscore | 0.0959 | 14.75*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9943 | 244.19*** |
| νDF | 6.7381 | 3.12*** |
0.994
Persistence122d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.9859 | 1.37 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0959 | 14.75*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9943 | 244.19*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.7381 | 3.12*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
122 days
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