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PSI 20 Portuguese Stock Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

13.20%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

13.47%

increased by 0.05%

1 Month

14.42%

increased by 1.00%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 06:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of PSI 20 Portuguese Stock Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1992 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 100% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 100% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0243
6.81***
αARCH0.0855
6.83***
βGARCH0.8576
95.16***
γleverage0.0857
2.79***

0.986

Persistence

49d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0243
6.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0855
6.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8576
95.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0857
2.79***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days