Skip to main content
V-Lab

PSI 20 Portuguese Stock Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

11.78%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Week

12.51%

increased by 0.16%

1 Month

14.47%

increased by 2.12%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 05:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of PSI 20 Portuguese Stock Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1992 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8088
5.55***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1498
10.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8029
49.60***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0921
3.60***
γ2-0.1929
-5.38***
γ30.1856
8.04***
γ4-0.1202
-5.26***
γ50.0178
0.73
γ60.0422
1.80*
γ7-0.0318
-1.91*

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

14 days