V-Lab
PSI 20 Portuguese Stock Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
13.97%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
14.37%
increased by 0.19%
1 Month
15.48%
increased by 1.30%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 06:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1992 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8009 | 5.42*** |
| αARCH | 0.1486 | 10.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8053 | 50.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0890 | 3.44*** |
| γ2 | -0.1883 | -5.21*** |
| γ3 | 0.1841 | 7.98*** |
| γ4 | -0.1222 | -5.41*** |
| γ5 | 0.0226 | 0.93 |
| γ6 | 0.0366 | 1.55 |
| γ7 | -0.0276 | -1.66* |
0.954
Persistence15d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8009 | 5.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1486 | 10.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8053 | 50.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0890 | 3.44*** |
| γ2 | -0.1883 | -5.21*** |
| γ3 | 0.1841 | 7.98*** |
| γ4 | -0.1222 | -5.41*** |
| γ5 | 0.0226 | 0.93 |
| γ6 | 0.0366 | 1.55 |
| γ7 | -0.0276 | -1.66* |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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