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V-Lab

PSI 20 Portuguese Stock Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

13.97%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Week

14.37%

increased by 0.19%

1 Month

15.48%

increased by 1.30%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 06:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of PSI 20 Portuguese Stock Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1992 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8009
5.42***
αARCH0.1486
10.20***
βGARCH0.8053
50.34***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0890
3.44***
γ2-0.1883
-5.21***
γ30.1841
7.98***
γ4-0.1222
-5.41***
γ50.0226
0.93
γ60.0366
1.55
γ7-0.0276
-1.66*

0.954

Persistence

15d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8009
5.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1486
10.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8053
50.34***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0890
3.44***
γ2-0.1883
-5.21***
γ30.1841
7.98***
γ4-0.1222
-5.41***
γ50.0226
0.93
γ60.0366
1.55
γ7-0.0276
-1.66*

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days