V-Lab
PSI 20 Portuguese Stock Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
10.87%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
11.23%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
12.52%
increased by 1.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1992 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0195 | 25.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1353 | 49.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8575 | 353.30*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
95 days
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