PSI 20 Portuguese Stock Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
13.09%
decreased by 1.49%
1 Week
13.39%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Month
14.43%
decreased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 12, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 1997 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 58% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 58% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0260 | 8.67*** |
| αARCH | 0.1811 | 9.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7519 | 67.20*** |
| γleverage | 0.1049 | 3.51*** |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0260 | 8.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1811 | 9.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7519 | 67.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1049 | 3.51*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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