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PSI 20 Portuguese Stock Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026

1 Day

13.09%

decreased by 1.49%

1 Week

13.39%

decreased by 1.19%

1 Month

14.43%

decreased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 12, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/12/2024

to

10/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of PSI 20 Portuguese Stock Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 18, 1997 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 58% more than equivalent positive returns.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 58% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0260
8.67***
αARCH0.1811
9.70***
βGARCH0.7519
67.20***
γleverage0.1049
3.51***

0.985

Persistence

47d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0260
8.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1811
9.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7519
67.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1049
3.51***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days