Pakistan Intl Bulk Terminal Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
47.28%
increased by 0.09%
1 Week
49.54%
increased by 2.35%
1 Month
53.50%
increased by 6.31%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7305 | 12.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1086 | 6.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7624 | 17.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.3038 | 7.00*** |
| γ2 | -0.4346 | -6.07*** |
| γ3 | 0.2179 | 3.85*** |
| γ4 | -0.1300 | -3.30*** |
Persistence:
0.871
Half-life:
5 days
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