Pakistan Intl Bulk Terminal APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
44.23%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
44.48%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
45.26%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:44 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2014 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 23% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.46 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1881 | 13.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1010 | 27.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8761 | 199.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0703 | 3.70*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4646 | 22.82*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
Other Pakistan Intl Bulk Terminal Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on International Equities