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V-Lab

Pakistan Intl Bulk Terminal APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

44.23%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

44.48%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Month

45.26%

increased by 0.44%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:44 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Pakistan Intl Bulk Terminal APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2014 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 23% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.46 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1881
13.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1010
27.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8761
199.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0703
3.70***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4646
22.82***

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days