Pakistan Intl Bulk Terminal Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
39.37%
1 Week
40.18%
1 Month
43.12%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 130 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.45 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2895 | 8.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1231 | 15.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8464 | 144.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0151 | -1.77* |
δ power Transformation power | 2.4496 | 13.89*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
130 days
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