Pakistan Intl Bulk Terminal GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
44.21%
increased by 0.16%
1 Week
44.58%
increased by 0.53%
1 Month
45.69%
increased by 1.64%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:45 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2014 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.3706 | 4.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1112 | 16.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9578 | 96.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8810 | 8.44*** |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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