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Pakistan Intl Bulk Terminal GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

40.94%

increased by 6.37%

1 Week

41.61%

increased by 7.04%

1 Month

43.58%

increased by 9.01%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 02:43 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Pakistan Intl Bulk Terminal GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2014 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-lifev = 3.84 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst9.3839
1.12
αARCH0.1120
4.23***
βGARCH0.9584
24.04***
νDF3.8402
2.16**

0.958

Persistence

16d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

9.3839
1.12
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1120
4.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9584
24.04***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.8402
2.16**

Persistence:

0.958

Half-life:

16 days