Pakistan Intl Bulk Terminal GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
39.71%
increased by 2.25%
1 Week
40.50%
increased by 3.04%
1 Month
42.81%
increased by 5.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.89 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.3370 | 4.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1116 | 16.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9576 | 96.79*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8853 | 8.45*** |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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