V-Lab
Pakistan Intl Bulk Terminal GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
40.94%
increased by 6.37%
1 Week
41.61%
increased by 7.04%
1 Month
43.58%
increased by 9.01%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 02:43 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2014 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-lifev = 3.84 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 9.3839 | 1.12 |
| αARCH | 0.1120 | 4.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9584 | 24.04*** |
| νDF | 3.8402 | 2.16** |
0.958
Persistence16d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.3839 | 1.12 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1120 | 4.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9584 | 24.04*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8402 | 2.16** |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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