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Pakistan Intl Bulk Terminal GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

44.21%

increased by 0.16%

1 Week

44.58%

increased by 0.53%

1 Month

45.69%

increased by 1.64%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:45 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Pakistan Intl Bulk Terminal GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2014 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

9.3706
4.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1112
16.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9578
96.86***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.8810
8.44***

Persistence:

0.958

Half-life:

16 days