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V-Lab

Pakistan Intl Bulk Terminal Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

46.36%

increased by 0.09%

1 Week

48.49%

increased by 2.22%

1 Month

52.22%

increased by 5.95%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Pakistan Intl Bulk Terminal SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7370
12.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1080
6.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7628
17.47***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.3067
7.00***
γ2-0.4410
-6.02***
γ30.2284
3.62***
γ4-0.1565
-2.03**

Persistence:

0.871

Half-life:

5 days