Pakistan Intl Bulk Terminal GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
45.26%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Week
45.29%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Month
45.38%
decreased by 0.99%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:44 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2014 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 38% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3003 | 14.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0782 | 12.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8707 | 195.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0296 | 2.34** |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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