V-Lab
Pakistan Intl Bulk Terminal GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
39.68%
increased by 1.66%
1 Week
40.13%
increased by 2.11%
1 Month
41.48%
increased by 3.46%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 02:42 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 2014 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 18-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3067 | 3.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.0796 | 3.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8680 | 47.93*** |
| γleverage | 0.0298 | 0.58 |
0.963
Persistence18d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3067 | 3.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0796 | 3.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8680 | 47.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0298 | 0.58 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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