iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
3.00%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
3.11%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
3.43%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 71% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 111 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1059 | 21.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8238 | 172.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0748 | 11.71*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0178 | 8.54*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7656 | 9.99*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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