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V-Lab

iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

3.00%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

3.11%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

3.43%

increased by 0.31%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 10, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 71% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

111
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1059
21.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8238
172.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0748
11.71***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0178
8.54***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7656
9.99***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days