V-Lab
iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4.67%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
4.68%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
4.71%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 61 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7470 | 3.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1641 | 10.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8247 | 59.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0025 | 2.80*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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