iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
2.71%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
2.78%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
3.02%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 60 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7298 | 3.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1629 | 10.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8256 | 60.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0026 | 2.84*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
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