iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
4.58%
increased by 1.52%
1 Week
4.63%
increased by 1.57%
1 Month
4.84%
increased by 1.78%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 132 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0012 | 22.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1561 | 39.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8386 | 263.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0359 | 10.84*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
132 days
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