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V-Lab

iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

4.58%

increased by 1.52%

1 Week

4.63%

increased by 1.57%

1 Month

4.84%

increased by 1.78%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 10, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 132 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0012
22.14***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1561
39.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8386
263.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0359
10.84***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

132 days