iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
2.96%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
3.09%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
3.52%
increased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 39 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7762 | 4.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1619 | 9.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8205 | 55.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0084 | 2.89*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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