iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
3.08%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
3.17%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
3.51%
increased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 45% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0636 | -15.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3019 | 41.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9715 | 733.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0553 | -9.53*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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