iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
2.83%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
2.93%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
3.28%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 128 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0013 | 18.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1602 | 38.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8344 | 258.10*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
128 days
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