V-Lab
iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
21.05%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
21.05%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
21.05%
decreased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 18, 2013 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 372% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 372% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0378 | 4.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.0455 | 1.59 |
| βGARCH | 0.8485 | 51.69*** |
| γleverage | 0.1691 | 3.73*** |
0.978
Persistence32d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0378 | 4.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0455 | 1.59 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8485 | 51.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1691 | 3.73*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
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