V-Lab
iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
25.95%
decreased by 1.94%
1 Week
25.77%
decreased by 2.12%
1 Month
25.13%
decreased by 2.76%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 18, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 376% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0378 | 19.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0453 | 6.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8484 | 204.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1702 | 14.97*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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