V-Lab
iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
23.37%
decreased by 1.69%
1 Week
23.56%
decreased by 1.50%
1 Month
24.18%
decreased by 0.88%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 18, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9412 | 4.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1563 | 7.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8072 | 37.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0255 | 2.11** |
| γ2 | -0.0378 | -2.51** |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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