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V-Lab
V-Lab

iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

25.16%

increased by 2.04%

1 Week

25.22%

increased by 2.10%

1 Month

25.41%

increased by 2.29%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 18, 2013 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9375
4.89***
αARCH0.1564
8.00***
βGARCH0.8067
37.85***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0252
2.11**
γ2-0.0372
-2.52**

0.963

Persistence

18d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9375
4.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1564
8.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8067
37.85***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0252
2.11**
γ2-0.0372
-2.52**

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

18 days