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V-Lab

iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

23.37%

decreased by 1.69%

1 Week

23.56%

decreased by 1.50%

1 Month

24.18%

decreased by 0.88%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 18, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9412
4.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1563
7.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8072
37.79***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0255
2.11**
γ2-0.0378
-2.51**

Persistence:

0.964

Half-life:

19 days