V-Lab
iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
29.56%
decreased by 1.94%
1 Week
30.14%
decreased by 1.36%
1 Month
31.23%
decreased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 18, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7802 | 116.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2504 | 33.83*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0220 | 2.78*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0996 | 4.39*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8869 | 33.06*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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