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iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

26.09%

increased by 2.64%

1 Week

25.91%

increased by 2.46%

1 Month

25.27%

increased by 1.82%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 18, 2013 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 35-day half-lifev = 7.60 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7367
1.69*
αARCH0.1322
6.97***
βGARCH0.9806
79.50***
νDF7.6038
1.42

0.981

Persistence

35d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7367
1.69*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1322
6.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9806
79.50***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.6038
1.42

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

35 days