V-Lab
iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
23.41%
decreased by 2.02%
1 Week
23.32%
decreased by 2.11%
1 Month
23.00%
decreased by 2.43%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 18, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7352 | 6.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1324 | 27.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9805 | 314.36*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5389 | 5.73*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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