Skip to main content
V-Lab

iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

23.41%

decreased by 2.02%

1 Week

23.32%

decreased by 2.11%

1 Month

23.00%

decreased by 2.43%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 18, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7352
6.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1324
27.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9805
314.36***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.5389
5.73***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

35 days