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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Aggregate: Government-Related Total Return Index Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

3.23%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

3.25%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

3.30%

increased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg US Aggregate: Government-Related Total Return Index Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1993 to Nov 12, 2021

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 125 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 50% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0004
14.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0379
16.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9629
814.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0127
-3.96***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

125 days