Bloomberg US Aggregate: Government-Related Total Return Index Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.23%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
3.25%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
3.30%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1993 to Nov 12, 2021Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 125 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 50% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0004 | 14.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0379 | 16.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9629 | 814.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0127 | -3.96*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
125 days
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