Bloomberg EM Local Currency Liquid Government Bond Index TR Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
5.64%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
5.75%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
6.11%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 14, 2011 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 121% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0055 | 16.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0421 | 14.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9091 | 259.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0509 | 7.42*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
29 days
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