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Bloomberg EM Local Currency Liquid Government Bond Index TR Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

6.10%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

6.17%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

6.41%

increased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg EM Local Currency Liquid Government Bond Index TR Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 14, 2011 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 154% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 154% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0046
4.32***
αARCH0.0390
3.94***
βGARCH0.9116
73.37***
γleverage0.0602
2.28**

0.981

Persistence

35d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0046
4.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0390
3.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9116
73.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0602
2.28**

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

35 days