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V-Lab

Bloomberg EM Local Currency Liquid Government Bond Index TR Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

5.64%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

5.75%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

6.11%

increased by 0.33%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg EM Local Currency Liquid Government Bond Index TR Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 14, 2011 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 121% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0055
16.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0421
14.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9091
259.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0509
7.42***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

29 days