Bloomberg EM Local Currency Liquid Government Bond Index TR Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
6.10%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
6.17%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
6.41%
increased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 14, 2011 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 154% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 154% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0046 | 4.32*** |
| αARCH | 0.0390 | 3.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9116 | 73.37*** |
| γleverage | 0.0602 | 2.28** |
0.981
Persistence35d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0046 | 4.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0390 | 3.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9116 | 73.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0602 | 2.28** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
35 days
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