ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
1.84%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
1.93%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
2.22%
increased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 02:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 63% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0009 | 24.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1018 | 25.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8515 | 273.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0641 | 9.45*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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