ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
2.50%
increased by 0.06%
1 Week
2.55%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
2.72%
increased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:31 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 64% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 64% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0009 | 6.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.1010 | 6.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8519 | 68.85*** |
| γleverage | 0.0643 | 2.39** |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0009 | 6.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1010 | 6.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8519 | 68.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0643 | 2.39** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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