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V-Lab

ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

2.05%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

2.12%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

2.37%

increased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1999 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 63% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0009
24.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1013
25.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8518
274.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0642
9.50***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days