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ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

2.50%

increased by 0.06%

1 Week

2.55%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

2.72%

increased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:31 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 64% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 64% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0009
6.03***
αARCH0.1010
6.36***
βGARCH0.8519
68.85***
γleverage0.0643
2.39**

0.985

Persistence

46d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0009
6.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1010
6.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8519
68.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0643
2.39**

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days