Bloomberg EM Govt Inflation-Linked All Maturities Bond Index TR Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
12.11%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
12.19%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
12.44%
decreased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2006 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 218% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 218% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0215 | 4.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.0442 | 3.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8772 | 66.01*** |
| γleverage | 0.0965 | 2.98*** |
0.970
Persistence23d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0215 | 4.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0442 | 3.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8772 | 66.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0965 | 2.98*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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