Bloomberg EM Govt Inflation-Linked All Maturities Bond Index TR Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
9.44%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
9.74%
increased by 0.23%
1 Month
10.65%
increased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2006 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 192% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0226 | 17.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0475 | 13.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8758 | 241.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0912 | 10.52*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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