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Bloomberg EM Govt Inflation-Linked All Maturities Bond Index TR Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

12.11%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Week

12.19%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Month

12.44%

decreased by 0.24%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg EM Govt Inflation-Linked All Maturities Bond Index TR Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 3, 2006 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 218% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 218% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0215
4.65***
αARCH0.0442
3.33***
βGARCH0.8772
66.01***
γleverage0.0965
2.98***

0.970

Persistence

23d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0215
4.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0442
3.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8772
66.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0965
2.98***

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

23 days