Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.59%
increased by 0.57%
1 Week
2.63%
increased by 0.61%
1 Month
2.78%
increased by 0.76%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 64% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0008 | 25.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1106 | 24.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8405 | 245.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0706 | 8.29*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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