Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
8.25%
increased by 2.31%
1 Week
8.14%
increased by 2.20%
1 Month
7.76%
increased by 1.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2001 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 67% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 67% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0012 | 7.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.1425 | 6.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7929 | 48.58*** |
| γleverage | 0.0952 | 2.31** |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0012 | 7.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1425 | 6.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7929 | 48.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0952 | 2.31** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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