V-Lab
Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
3.21%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
3.23%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
3.30%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 64% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0008 | 25.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1106 | 24.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8405 | 245.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0706 | 8.29*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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