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Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

8.25%

increased by 2.31%

1 Week

8.14%

increased by 2.20%

1 Month

7.76%

increased by 1.82%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2001 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 67% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 67% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0012
7.07***
αARCH0.1425
6.05***
βGARCH0.7929
48.58***
γleverage0.0952
2.31**

0.983

Persistence

40d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0012
7.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1425
6.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7929
48.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0952
2.31**

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

40 days