Bloomberg Multiverse Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
4.71%
increased by 0.38%
1 Week
4.72%
increased by 0.39%
1 Month
4.76%
increased by 0.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 31, 2000 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 146 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~146 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0006 | 3.21*** |
| αARCH | 0.0387 | 4.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9552 | 157.86*** |
| γleverage | 0.0026 | 0.19 |
0.995
Persistence146d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 3.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0387 | 4.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9552 | 157.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0026 | 0.19 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
146 days
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