V-Lab
Bloomberg Multiverse Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
4.09%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
4.10%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
4.14%
decreased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 31, 2000 to Aug 20, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0663 | 10.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7747 | 25.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0112 | -1.84* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0006 | 1.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0475 | 1.47 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9473 | 26.65*** |
Persistence:
0.835
Half-life:
4 days
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