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Bloomberg US Government Inflation-Linked Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

4.02%

increased by 0.32%

1 Week

4.04%

increased by 0.34%

1 Month

4.16%

increased by 0.46%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg US Government Inflation-Linked Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 1997 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0451
3.41***
βGARCH0.8595
34.43***
γleverage0.0256
1.71*
λ₁tau intercept0.0043
2.32**
λ₂forecast adj.0.9924
38.70***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.917

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0451
3.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8595
34.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0256
1.71*
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0043
2.32**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9924
38.70***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.917

Half-life:

8 days