V-Lab
Bloomberg US Government Inflation-Linked Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
3.55%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
3.60%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
3.67%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1997 to Aug 20, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 57% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0447 | 10.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8608 | 118.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0256 | 5.70*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0042 | 2.06** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9918 | 10.31*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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