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Bloomberg US Government Inflation-Linked Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

3.55%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Week

3.60%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

3.67%

decreased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg US Government Inflation-Linked Bond Index Total Return Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 1997 to Aug 20, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 57% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0447
10.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8608
118.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0256
5.70***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0042
2.06**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9918
10.31***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.918

Half-life:

8 days