V-Lab
Bloomberg US Credit Aa Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
5.03%
increased by 0.13%
1 Week
5.00%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
4.95%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 1990 to Aug 20, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 38% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0434 | 9.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8403 | 41.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0166 | 4.76*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0004 | 1.87* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0312 | 1.98** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9650 | 57.05*** |
Persistence:
0.892
Half-life:
6 days
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