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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Credit Aa Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, May 22nd, 2026

1 Day

1.88%

decreased by 7.63%

1 Week

7,888,244,063,161,332.00%

increased by 7,888,244,063,161,322.00%

1 Month

29,741,542,663,419,454,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 29,741,542,663,419,454,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, May 23, 2026 at 01:58 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg US Credit Aa Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time
paramt-stat
m116
α1.00009,999,900.00
β0.0000100.00
γ0.00000.00
λ10.0078410.63
λ20.0000100.00
λ30.83192,090.26
Estimation Period:
Jan 30, 1990 to Nov 12, 2021