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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Credit Aa Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

5.03%

increased by 0.13%

1 Week

5.00%

increased by 0.10%

1 Month

4.95%

increased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Bloomberg US Credit Aa Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 30, 1990 to Aug 20, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 38% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0434
9.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8403
41.18***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0166
4.76***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0004
1.87*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0312
1.98**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9650
57.05***

Persistence:

0.892

Half-life:

6 days