Bloomberg US Credit Aa Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, May 22nd, 2026
1 Day
1.88%
decreased by 7.63%
1 Week
7,888,244,063,161,332.00%
increased by 7,888,244,063,161,322.00%
1 Month
29,741,542,663,419,454,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
increased by 29,741,542,663,419,454,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, May 23, 2026 at 01:58 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 116 | ||
| 1.0000 | 9,999,900.00 | |
| 0.0000 | 100.00 | |
| 0.0000 | 0.00 | |
| 0.0078 | 410.63 | |
| 0.0000 | 100.00 | |
| 0.8319 | 2,090.26 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 30, 1990 to Nov 12, 2021
Jan 30, 1990 to Nov 12, 2021
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