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V-Lab

Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, March 27th, 2026

1 Day

1.69%

decreased by 4.58%

1 Week

1.90%

decreased by 4.37%

1 Month

2.82%

decreased by 3.45%

Analysis last updated: Monday, March 30, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time
paramt-stat
m31
α0.75007,499,900.00
β0.0000100.00
γ0.50005,000,000.00
λ10.00533.00
λ21.000055.53
λ30.00000.00
Estimation Period:
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025