V-Lab
Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
4.04%
increased by 0.10%
1 Week
4.04%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
4.05%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 20, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 83% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0321 | 9.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8634 | 36.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0267 | 6.68*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0004 | 1.85* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0331 | 1.67* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9616 | 43.60*** |
Persistence:
0.909
Half-life:
7 days
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