Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.86%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
3.87%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
3.88%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 104 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0682 | 8.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0384 | 32.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9933 | 1,139.15*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.8257 | 4.07*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
104 days
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