ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
4.67%
1 Week
4.67%
1 Month
4.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.0896 | 2.36** |
| αscore | 0.0393 | 10.51*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9938 | 346.16*** |
| νDF | 8.2189 | 1.37 |
0.994
Persistence112d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.0896 | 2.36** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0393 | 10.51*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9938 | 346.16*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.2189 | 1.37 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
112 days
Other ICE BofA BBB US Corporate Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Bond Indices