Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
4.07%
1 Week
4.08%
1 Month
4.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1994 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 172 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.1003 | 1.70* |
| αscore | 0.0368 | 10.05*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9960 | 396.49*** |
| νDF | 9.1057 | 1.15 |
0.996
Persistence172d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.1003 | 1.70* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0368 | 10.05*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9960 | 396.49*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.1057 | 1.15 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
172 days
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