Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index Total Return Value Unhedged USD GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
3.71%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
3.72%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
3.77%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 1994 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 186 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.92 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1055 | 6.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0369 | 40.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9963 | 1,723.68*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.9226 | 4.90*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
186 days
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